• Bitcoin's Sluggishness
    by ForexLive on October 3, 2022 at 7:51 am

    <p class="MsoNormal">Bitcoin is up 2.5% over the past seven days, trading at $19,300 on Monday morning. Ethereum added 0.2%, to $1300. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 have shown mixed dynamics, ranging from an 8% decline (XRP) to a 4% rise (BNB).</p><p class="MsoNormal">Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 0.5% over the week to $930bn. The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index is at 24 by Monday versus 21 a week earlier.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Bitcoin was able to keep from falling last week despite notable declines in stock indices and a Fed rate hike but lacked the strength to rise. The first cryptocurrency's fluctuation waves are getting smaller and smaller, approaching ripple levels.</p><p class="MsoNormal">In such a lull, significant order volumes tend to pull closer to the price, the triggering of which can break the current trend. The lower boundary of the indecision range remained at $18.8K. </p><p class="MsoNormal">However, the upper bound has shifted to 20.3, where several local highs since September 14 and the 50-day moving average are concentrated. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Bitcoin posted a moderate decline (-3.8%) in September, contrasted with a sharp fall of more than 9% in the S&P 500 Index. Unlike the stock index, BTC was able to hold its June lows.</p><p class="MsoNormal">In terms of seasonality, October is considered one of the best months of the year. Bitcoin has ended this month up six times in the last seven years. The average growth over the previous 11 years has been 33%, and the average decline has been 15%.</p><p>News background</p><p class="MsoNormal">According to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, bitcoin's resilience in September is since most sellers have left the crypto market, having sold off their assets.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The ECB has published the first results of its Digital Euro Survey, which suggests that the broadest use of CBDC will be in the retail sector.</p><p class="MsoNormal">German telecoms giant Deutsche Telekom launched its Ethereum transaction validation node to support stacking on the second cryptocurrency's network.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Spain's largest telecommunications company Telefonica has allowed customers of its online shop to pay for purchases with digital assets.</p><p class="MsoNormal">BlackRock has applied to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for metaverse-related companies.</p> This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

  • FX Majors Weekly Outlook: 3-7 October
    by ForexLive on October 3, 2022 at 7:38 am

    <p class="MsoNormal">UPCOMING EVENTS:</p><ul><li>Monday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.</li><li>Tuesday: RBA Policy Announcement.</li><li>Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Announcement, US ISM Services PMI.</li><li>Friday: US NFP Report.</li></ul><p class="MsoNormal">Last week was a messy one in terms of market movements. </p><p class="MsoNormal">We saw some losses in equities, some gains in fixed income and some choppy price action in forex. The major event last week was the BoE intervention in the long-dated gilts market to stop the massive sell-off following the new government’s expansionary fiscal policy announcements. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The BoE also delayed its planned gilt sales until the end of October. The intervention gave some relief to the markets and the sell-off in gilts and the pound reversed some of the losses. This is more of a short-term fix and doesn’t change much the future outlook. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Monday: The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a little dip to 52.3 from the prior 52.8 with forecasts ranging between 51.0 and 53.7. Needless to say, that the manufacturing sector is expected to keep on contracting going forward amid tighter monetary conditions and slowing growth with a recession by now almost a done deal. The market will focus more on the prices paid component, which has shown notable cooling and may trigger some relief rally in case of another dip. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Tuesday: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates by 50 bps bringing the cash rate to 2.85%. The central bank is expected to keep on its tightening path to bring inflation back to their 2-3% range target. Australia’s first ever monthly CPI report showed inflation being still more than double the RBA’s target, which doesn’t signal any pivot coming from them in the near future. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Wednesday: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike by 50 bps and bring the cash rate to 3.50%. The central bank is expected to keep increasing rates and maintaining the current pace of tightening, while also acknowledging that the tightening cycle is “very mature”. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The ISM Services PMI is expected to show a dip to 56.0 from the prior 56.9. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The Services sector has been showing more strength compared to its Manufacturing counterpart, which is generally a classic pattern, and the prices paid component, while cooling a bit, kept on remaining elevated by historical standards. </p><p class="MsoNormal">We saw how services were a big contributor in the Core CPI increase despite the Fed’s tightening and this may mean that the Fed needs to inflict more pain if it wants to achieve its goal. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Friday: We end the week with the US Labour Market report. The headline figure is expected to show 250K added jobs from the prior 315K with estimates ranging between 175K and 350K. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7% with forecasts between 3.6% and 3.8%. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The Fed is expected to deliver another 75 bps hike at its November meeting and it will need a poor (not slightly poor) jobs report to reprice expectations to a lighter 50 bps increase (the CPI report will be more important for the Fed’s decision anyway). The market will also focus on the average hourly earnings figure and a higher-than-expected print should be taken bad by the market. </p><p class="MsoNormal">This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.</p> This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

  • Market Outlook for the Week of October 03-07
    by ForexLive on October 3, 2022 at 7:38 am

    <p class="MsoNormal">The week will kick off with the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, followed by the Australian RBA rate statement and cash rate and the U.S. JOLTS job openings on Tuesday.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Wednesday will be the busiest day with the RBNZ rate statement and official cash rate, the ADP non-farm employment change and ISM services PMI in the U.S. and the OPEC+ meetings.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Friday we'll get the U.S. non-farm employment change, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings m/m, as well as the employment change and unemployment rate for Canada. A few Fed members are also expected to deliver their remarks.</p><p class="MsoNormal">In the U.K. there was a lot of debate about an intermediary rate hike, but it is unlikely that the BOE will act before the November meeting.</p><p class="MsoNormal"> After the U.K.'s mini-budget announcement by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng the BOE was forced to intervene to calm down the market volatility. </p><p class="MsoNormal">UK Treasury Committee Chairman Mel Stride urged the Chancellor to publish the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) forecast before its scheduled date of Nov. 23rd.</p><p class="MsoNormal">On Friday, PM Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng met with the OBR, which issued a statement saying an initial forecast is to be provided to the Chancellor on October 7 which "will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the Government's policies."</p><p class="MsoNormal">The ISM manufacturing PMI for the U.S. this week might print lower after a period where it was stable around 52.8 due to a likely decline in manufacturing activity caused by weakening domestic and global demand for goods. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The RBA meeting is expected to be a quiet one. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The bank is likely to continue its pace of tightening in order to keep up with the pace of other central banks globally. At this meeting a 50 bps rate hike is probable, but November and December could see only 25 bps rate hikes.</p><p class="MsoNormal">For New Zealand, 80% of analysts expect RBNZ to deliver a 50 bps rate hike and 20% expect a 75 bps rate hike. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Governor Orr stressed at the last meeting that further rate increases are possible. </p><p class="MsoNormal">According to Citi analysts this meeting is likely to have a hawkish message due to the record-high demand for labour in the country and they believe a 50 bps rate hike will also follow in November and a final 25 bps rate hike in February next year to reach a terminal rate of 4.25%.</p><p class="MsoNormal">According to the WSJ, OPEC+ is considering reducing output by 1 million barrels a day due to the decline in demand fuelled by the economic slowdown. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Some indication that oil production cuts are on the table is the fact that the meeting was changed from a video conference one to an in-person event in Vienna.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The ISM services index has seen the highest growth in four months in August, when it rose to 56.9 driven by a rise in business activity and new orders. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The service sector accounts for a large share of the U.S. economy, so its changes can be seen as reflecting the economy as a whole. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Analysts expect a strong reading of 56.5 for the September print this week, but Wells Fargo believes the index is likely to dip over the next few quarters as the tightening monetary policy starts impacting the service sector.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The U.S. nonfarm payrolls saw an increase of 315K at the reading last month and the labour market continues to be strong. </p><p class="MsoNormal">The consensus is for a 265K increase in this week's report. </p><p class="MsoNormal">According to Wells Fargo, the Fed is looking for a cooldown in labour demand in order to decelerate wage growth which is now inconsistent with the 2% inflation target, but not a big enough drop that it would tip the economy into recession.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The data for Canada is expected to reflect a decline in September, as we saw in August, but Citi analysts believe it's too soon to see sustained job losses due to cooling demand caused by the tightening monetary policy. </p><p class="MsoNormal">This week BoC Governor Macklem will deliver a speech regarding the outlook for the economy and inflation and traders will be paying attention as it can provide clues about the number and size of future rate hikes. Otherwise, the meeting itself is less likely to cause volatility.</p><p class="MsoNormal">USD/CAD expectations</p><p class="MsoNormal">The pair closed the week near the 1.3815 level of resistance. </p><p class="MsoNormal">From there a correction is likely until the 1.3510 level of support. The USD is expected to strengthen in the near future against the CAD. A risk for this trade could be this week's OPEC+ meetings so it's worth keeping an eye on oil price as the CAD is sensitive to it.</p><p class="MsoNormal">On the H4 chart a bearish divergence seems to be forming that could suggest a bigger correction if the fundamentals align. Overall, USD/CAD should present buying opportunities this week.</p><p class="MsoNormal">On the upside the next level of resistance is at 1.3970. </p><p>This article was written by Gina Constantin.</p> This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

  • Registering a non-regulated Forex-company
    by ForexLive on September 30, 2022 at 10:41 am

    <p class="MsoNormal">In the present article, the <a href="https://www.utip.org/" target="_blank">UTIP Technologies</a> specialists pointed out the advantages of working without license for forex brokers and common non-regulated jurisdictions.</p><p>Why registering a forex-company in unregulated areas is worthy?</p><p class="MsoNormal">Non-regulated jurisdictions, also known as offshore zones, are popular because of low or zero taxation and various perks. Unregulated brokers are free from making a number of procedures, providing financial reports and doing other activities. Meanwhile, their licensed colleagues are required to perform it regularly. </p><p class="MsoNormal">As an example, regulatory authorities underway monitoring procedures in the offshore jurisdictions. But an unregulated broker is immune to it.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Benefits of selecting an offshore jurisdiction for company registration:</p><ul><li>A low-priced company registration;</li></ul><ul><li>Coherent procedure for opening a company and further maintenance;</li><li>A completely remote registration process, no cost of visiting the country, maintaining the office and its staff;</li><li>A minimum set of documents for registration;</li><li>1-month company registration period.</li></ul><p>Unregulated jurisdiction is the most favorable option for novice brokers. The reason is that a new entrant can make the most of money saved on the license. For example, to invest in high-quality lead flow, connect several payment solutions including a cashier one etc. </p><p>The most common non-regulated jurisdictions</p><p class="MsoNormal">SVG. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is one of the most popular countries for conducting Forex activities without a license. An island nation in the Caribbean Sea. We have already mentioned that there are many large forex-brokers working there.</p><p class="MsoNormal">MI. The Marshall Islands have no local forex trading regulatory bodies either. This is an island state washed by the Pacific Ocean. </p><p class="MsoNormal">Differences between SVG and MI:</p><ul><li>Price and time: cheaper but longer to register a company on SVG.</li></ul><ul><li>Set of documents for registration: fewer documents are required on MI.</li></ul><p class="MsoNormal">Needless to say, an offshore registration has its pros and cons. </p><p class="MsoNormal">One of the main advantages the brokers find offshore jurisdictions cost-efficient, is the taxation system. Minimal taxes or their absence let companies significantly reduce operating expenditures. </p><p class="MsoNormal">None the less, brokers should be aware of required professional knowledge and Forex market-experience for working in the offshore jurisdictions. We are always ready to assist in registering a company in the offshore jurisdictions. </p><p class="MsoNormal">If the question of registering a company on SVG or MI is relevant to you, we are pleased to give you a more detailed information. </p><p class="MsoNormal"> Follow the <a href="https://www.utip.org/#send-message" target="_blank">UTIP website</a> to get more information about these and other special offers.</p> This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

  • Bitcoin seems to be regaining defensive status
    by ForexLive on September 30, 2022 at 9:56 am

    <p class="MsoNormal">Bitcoin has remained in position for the past few days, trading at $19,500 on Friday morning. As in previous days, the attempt to sell the cryptocurrency following the stock market was met with buying.</p><p class="MsoNormal">This neat bottom-drawing by Bitcoin could show a wait-and-see stance and consolidation before the next move. However, crypto optimists are now siding with the positive momentum in gold and sector stocks. Investors have probably recalled them as a store of value amid the volatility in the currency market.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Among the closest key levels, the $20.8K where the 50-day moving average is located is worth mentioning. It has been playing an active role as resistance for more than a month. Local support is near $18.8K. A move outside this range could signal the end of the current consolidation. </p><p>News background</p><p class="MsoNormal">Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller expects the US economy to deteriorate significantly by the end of next year. That's when cryptocurrencies could make a resurgence.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Alexander Hoptner, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, said he does not see any decline in institutional investor interest in the crypto industry, despite the bearish trend.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Lastly, BlackRock has launched on Euronext, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focusing on blockchain and cryptocurrency companies.</p> This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.